What Does the Target Grade on My Child's Report Mean?

Autumn reports go home in October and November, often just before parents' evening. For many families it is the first time they have seen GCSE target grades, and the report rarely explains them. One subject says target 7, working at 5. Another says target 6, working at 6, predicted 5. It is hard to tell whether that is good news.

This guide explains what each number means, where the target came from, and how to tell an ordinary gap from one that needs attention.

The three numbers on a GCSE report

Schools use different names, but most reports in Years 10 and 11 show some version of these three. If your child's report uses other words, the column headings or the key at the bottom will usually say which is which.

The working-at and predicted grades tell you about your child. The target tells you about the progress the school is aiming for. So the useful comparison is usually between the predicted grade and the target, because both are end-of-Year-11 grades.

Where the target grade comes from

Most secondary schools in England start from estimates made by FFT, the Fischer Family Trust, an education charity that provides data to schools. For each pupil and each GCSE subject, FFT looks at what pupils with similar starting points went on to get nationally. The starting point is usually the Year 6 SATs results, or CAT4 scores taken in Year 7. The estimate also takes account of gender and birth month.

FFT gives each estimate at three levels of challenge, and the school chooses which to use.

FFT is clear that these are estimates, not targets: in its words, the estimate tells a school "what pupils like yours have gone on to achieve", and the target is the school's decision. Tarleton Academy in Lancashire, for example, tells parents it uses FFT20 for its Key Stage 4 targets. Millthorpe School in York uses FFT50 to judge its own progress and FFT20 for pupils' targets.

A target is a probability, not a prediction

An FFT estimate is not one grade. It is a spread of chances: the chance of a 4, of a 5, of a 6 and so on. The grade on the report is usually the most likely one, which can still be quite unlikely on its own.

Millthorpe's guide puts it plainly: benchmarks "are not prophecies". The model only knows a child's Key Stage 2 results, birth month and gender. It does not know how hard they work, whether they had a bad week in Year 6, or how much they have changed since. The same guide notes that a pupil with a very high Year 6 English score and a low maths score can be given middle estimates in everything, because the scores get averaged out.

When the gap is worth acting on

Because the target is an end-of-Year-11 grade, most pupils are working below it for much of Year 10. What matters is the size of the gap, how close the exams are, and whether it is closing.

Some gaps matter more than others. A grade 4 in English and maths is the standard pass, and many sixth forms ask for a 5 or 6 in the subjects your child wants to study. If the gap sits right on one of those lines, our guide to grade 4 vs grade 5 and our sixth form entry grades guide explain what is at stake.

Questions to ask about the target at parents' evening

Appointments are often five minutes per subject. These questions get you the most useful answers in that time.

For the wider evening, including what teachers' phrases usually mean and what to ask in each year group, see our guide to parents' evening questions to ask at secondary school.

The tier question matters most in maths, where a foundation paper caps the grade at 5. If that has already happened, our guide to being moved to foundation maths explains what it means.

If your child is below target

1. Find the one or two subjects that matter

A report with ten subjects can feel like ten problems. Usually it is one or two. Start with any subject that is two grades below, then with maths and English, because so many next steps depend on them.

2. Ask what kind of gap it is

A gap in content (topics they never understood) needs teaching. A gap in exam technique (they know it but lose marks on longer questions) needs practice with feedback. A gap in effort or homework needs a conversation at home. The teacher can usually tell you which it is.

3. Use the mocks as the next checkpoint

Year 11 mocks usually come between November and January. They will give you a working-at grade based on full papers, which is often more honest than the autumn report. Our guide to the six weeks before GCSE mocks covers what to do now, and the mock results were bad covers what to do afterwards.

4. Talk about the target with your child, not at them

Teenagers who feel a target was set for them by a computer often ignore it. Ask what grade they want, and why. A grade they chose themselves, for a reason they care about, is usually the one they work for.

Bring the report to a free demo class

A school report tells you there is a gap. It rarely tells you what is causing it, and parents' evening does not leave much time to find out. That is what our free demo class is for. When you book, send us a photo of the report, or just tell us the subject and the grades. A report isn't required, but it helps the tutor plan a demo around your child's real gap.

After the demo, if the tutor is the right fit, they carry on with your child at the same time each week. If they are not, we match a different tutor, and the second demo is free too. You can sit in on any lesson, and every tutor is interviewed, experienced and DBS-checked.

Our GCSE online tutoring is one-to-one and taught to your child's exam board, in subjects including maths and English. Lessons are one hour and start from £20 at GCSE, with no contract and no sign-up fee. Full rates are on our pricing page, and how it works explains each step. We won't promise that your child will reach the target. How far they move depends on where they start and the work they do between lessons.